[往期回顾]一个关于决策过程的案例分析- -经济学和心理学视角 - 信息系统项目管理师_2024年软考学习应考交流_信息系统项目管理师考试

This is a case-analyzing paper totally based on an actual experience—a bus seats dilemma. The case was fairly worth considering and the author analyzed the case with two different methods: the Economics-Game Theory method and the Social Psychological method. Then the two methods were combined together concerning about the case’s impact toward the future. At the end of the paper, the author concluded that sometimes the informal social conventions could lead to “The Low-level Equilibrium Traps (LET)”. The paper mainly focuses on the internal causes of the decision-making behavior processes.

Human behavior was never thought purely rational, even not quasi-rational from long time ago. The decision making process would be affected by passion, emotion and bias. Economists such as Becker (1976) argued the neo-classical Economics has perfect assumptions, which can combine all the human behaviors into one unique framework. He contributed much but still, the assumptions of the mainstream Economics still are considered to be too strong[1]. As messy as complicating our familiar model of humans will be, however, it is not legitimate for economists to continue to ignore psychological research. Many psychological findings are robust enough, tractable enough, and of enough potential economic importance that we ought to integrate them into Economics. (Robin, 1996)

Formal and informal institutions are introduced in to give suggestions of behaving. In Social Psychology, we often call this Social Roles or Social Norm. People in different cultures will be assumed to accept them even when they were still little children. This is almost like training.

In some certain cases we can survey the procedures more clearly rather than just thinking about it abstractly. Cases at least have two advantages compared to experiments:

(1) The participants unconsciously exhibit their behavior more naturally without any “acting” stimulant.

But cases also have drawbacks that they are more difficult to observe because they could happen anytime and anywhere without enough preparation and they may only take place once. So the data and process could be hard to record[2] and manage.

This paper is due to analyze such a consider-worthy case and look into human behavior especially for the decision making process.

* This paper is dedicated to my parents who continuously give me mental and financial support. Without them, I surely could not go this far. And I also like to thank Professor Zhou Yean from the Economics Department of China Renmin University for his kind suggestions on both my paper and my study. Several of my classmates also read this paper’s previous versions and posted their valuable advices, including Bi, Zhang, Yang and Wang.

** Undergraduate from Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Northwest University. Mailing Address:

PO Box 42

, Chang’an Campus of Northwest University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China, 710127.

PO Box 42

, Chang’an Campus of Northwest University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China, 710127.

Email: cuichen_pararox_1983@yahoo.com

Academic Disciplines Interests: Behavioral Economics and Psychological Economics

[1] Because this argument is not the main reference of this paper, I just briefly inform it here. For more references could see Ryder and Heal (1973), Knetsch (1992), Freshtman (1993), Berlin (1993, p.114), Kagel and Roth (1995).

[2] This case happened right before the start of writing of this paper, so I can easily recall and record all the details without a problem.

2002年11月的时候，瑞典皇家科学院宣布2002年诺贝尔经济学奖授予给了一位经济学家和一位心理学家，这位心理学家是美国普林斯顿大学的丹尼尔.卡尼曼教授。他是将人类的决策与判断的心理学研究成果成功地引入到了经济学领域的研究中，从而使得人类对经济学的探索从理论的假设进入了现实，开创了新的局面。

而经济学本身是一个系统的学科，对经济学的研究离不开对人类活动、行为的观察和理解，也离不开社会的群体，今天，我们不再看到经济学脱离对人类行为和心理的探索，那么这样的经济学研究也许比建立于纯粹假设基础上的更具备指导意义。

西北大学经济管理学院的学生能够对这些前沿问题进行探索和分析确实很不容易。

如果作者对经济学的心理研究方面有兴趣的话，本人可以推荐一本书：

《决策与判断》[美]斯科特.普劳斯著，人民邮电出版社2004年出版

该书是一本社会心理学方面的著作，其他有关心理学与经济学的书籍在该书后面的推荐读物和参考文献里面有很多了，作者可以自行选择阅读。同时建议作者阅读一下丹尼尔.卡尼曼教授的著作，这样会对你的研究更有启发。

这是个方向呢，既要有理论功底，又要有前瞻性，尤其是不确定和风险决策过程